中国气候变化信息网 China Climate Change Info-Net

文章编号：1673-1719 (2007) 06-0311-04

 秦大河^1,2, 罗勇³, 陈振林¹, 任贾文^2,4, 沈永平⁴

（1 中国气象局，北京 100081；2 中国科学院冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室，兰州 730000；3 中国气象局 国家气候中心，北京 100081；4 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所，兰州 730000）

摘 要：政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第四次评估报告综合报告于2007年11月17日在西班牙正式发布。综合报告将温室气体排放、大气温室气体浓度与地球表面温度直接联系起来，综合评估了气候变化科学、气候变化的影响和应对措施的最新研究进展。综合报告指出：控制温室气体排放量的行动刻不容缓；能否减小全球变暖所带来的负面影响，将在很大程度上取决于人类在今后二三十年中在削减温室气体排放方面所作的努力和投资。这对国际社会和各国政府制定经济社会发展政策，适应和减缓气候变化有一定的指导和促进作用。

关键词：气候变化；IPCC第四次评估报告；综合报告

中图分类号：P467   文献标识码：A

Qin Dahe^1,2, Luo Yong³, Chen Zhenlin¹, Ren Jiawen^2,4, Shen Yongping⁴

 (1 China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 2 National Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China; 3 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 4 Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China)

Abstract: The Synthesis Report of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) was launched in Spain on November 17, 2007. The report synthesizes the recent advances in physical sciences, impacts, adaptation and mitigation of climate change by interlinking the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission, atmospheric GHG concentration with surface temperature. The report indicates whether the negative impacts of climate change could be minimized largely depends upon the efforts and investment in global GHG emission control in the future 20 to 30 years. It is urgent for mankind to take prompt actions in reducing the GHG emission. The synthesis report of IPCC AR4 promotes scientific guidance to the social-economy policies made by governments worldwide and the international negotiation regarding climate change. 

Key words: climate change; the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report; Synthesis Report

收稿日期：2007-11-25； 修订日期：2007-11-27

基金项目：中国气象局气候变化专项（CCSF2006-7; CCSF2006-9）；国家重点基础研究计划（2006CB403701）；国家自然科学基金项目“大气-植

作者简介：秦大河（1947-），男，中国科学院院士/研究员，主要从事气候变化、冰冻圈与全球变化研究. E-mail: qdh@cma.gov.cn

文章编号：1673-1719 (2007) 06-0315-07

吴青柏，程国栋，马  巍，刘永智

（中国科学院 寒区旱区环境与工程研究所 冻土工程国家重点实验室，兰州 730000）

摘 要：气候变化对高温高含冰量冻土影响显著，因此，青藏铁路穿越多年冻土地区的筑路工程设计必须考虑未来气候变化的影响。为了减缓、适应气候变化的影响，解决高温高含冰量路基稳定性问题，修建青藏铁路时提出了冷却路基、降低多年冻土温度的设计新思想。该筑路工程技术通过采用调控热的传导、辐射和对流以及综合调控措施达到降低多年冻土温度、适应气候变化的目的，最大限度地确保多年冻土区路基的稳定性。

关键词：青藏铁路；气候变化；筑路技术

中图分类号：P642.14/P467   文献标识码：A

Wu Qingbai, Cheng Guodong, Ma Wei, Liu Yongzhi

 (Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China)

Abstract: The impact of climate warming on warm and rich-ice permafrost must be considered for engineering design in the Qinghai-Tibet Railway. In order to face climate warming and solve the roadbed stability in the regions of warm and rich-ice permafrost, the new design idea of cooling embankment to reduce the permafrost temperature under the embankment was proposed. Engineering measures controlling heat conduction, radiation and convection were proposed to achieve the objective of reducing permafrost temperature and mitigating the impact of climate warming, ensuring the roadbed stability in permafrost regions to the largest extent.

Key words: the Qinghai-Tibet Railway; climate change; techniques of railway construction

收稿日期：2007-09-19； 修订日期：2007-10-18

基金项目：国家自然科学基金杰出青年基金项目（40625004）；国家重点基础研究发展计划（973计划）项目（2002CB412704）资助

作者简介：吴青柏（1964-），男，研究员，主要从事冻土环境与工程研究.  E-mail: qbwu@lzb.ac.cn

文章编号：1673-1719 (2007) 06-0322-06

王勤花¹，曲建升^1,2，张志强¹

（1 中国科学院 资源环境科学信息中心（国家科学图书馆兰州分馆），兰州 730000；2 兰州大学教育部西部环境重点实验室，兰州 730000）

摘 要：介绍了当前国际主要气候变化减缓技术，并以国际能源署（IEA）、世界自然基金会（WWF）、全球能源技术战略计划（GTSP）、世界资源研究所（WRI）和欧盟（EU）、美国等国际组织、机构与国家发布或拟议中的有关气候变化减缓技术的报告为框架，对全球的气候变化减缓技术部署进行了概述。在此基础上，分析了主要的气候变化减缓技术对减缓气候变化的预期贡献。最后，对减排技术的效果、安全性、对环境的影响以及公众的认可程度等进行了讨论。

关键词：气候变化减缓技术；温室气体减排；全球变暖；气候政策

中图分类号：P467   文献标识码：A

Wang Qinhua¹, Qu Jiansheng^{1, 2,} Zhang Zhiqiang¹

 (1 Scientific Information Center for Resources and Environment (Lanzhou Branch of National Science Library), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China; 2 MOE Key Laboratory of Western Environmental Systems, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China)

Abstract: Key climate change mitigation technologies were outlined as a brief introduction. Some organizations have paid more attention to climate change mitigation technologies recently. Some important strategy plans were proposed by International Energy Agency (IEA), World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), Global Energy Technology Strategy Program (GTSP), World Resources Institute (WRI), EU and United States. After a synthetical analysis on these strategy plans, a blue map of international climate change mitigation technology was described. The prospective contributions of climate change technologies for mitigating global warming were addressed. And also, some important related aspects that may impact the effort of climate change technology practices, efficiency, safety, environment, and public acceptability, etc., were put forward at the end of the paper.

Key words: climate change mitigation technology; greenhouse gases emission reduction; global warming; climate policy

收稿日期：2007-09-03； 修订日期：2007-10-23

基金项目：中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目“资料与海洋、生态与环境创新基地战略研究与科学评价”（KZCX2-YW-501）；中国科学院“西部之光”人才培养计划项目“甘肃省利用清洁发展机制的对策与实现途径研究”；甘肃省重大科技专项“甘肃省清洁发展机制项目开发”（2GS063-A74-014-01）资助

作者简介：王勤花（1975-），女，助理研究员，主要从事可持续发展情报研究.  E-mail: wangqh@llas.ac.cn

文章编号：1673-1719 (2007) 06-0328-06

许  黎¹，王亚强²，罗  勇¹，陈振林³，任万辉⁴

（1 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室，北京 100081；2 中国气象科学研究院 大气成分观测与

服务中心，北京 100081；3 中国气象局，北京 100081； 4 沈阳市环境监测中心，沈阳 110016）

摘 要：黑碳气溶胶不仅是全球变暖的重要影响因子，也可能对气候系统的多个参数产生影响，如大气环流、云和降水等。随着研究的深入，与黑碳有关的研究领域已经拓展到黑碳气溶胶与碳循环和大气环流的相互作用、黑碳表面与活性气态物种间的相互作用等方面。在评述国内外有关研究新进展的基础上，展望了黑碳气溶胶未来的研究领域。

关键词：黑碳气溶胶；气候效应；碳循环；大气环流；非均相反应

中图分类号：PX513/P467   文献标识码：A

Xu Li¹, Wang Yaqiang², Luo Yong¹ Chen Zhenlin³, Ren Wanhui⁴

 (1 Laboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 2 Centre for Atmosphere Watch and Services, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China; 3 China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 4 Shenyang Environment Monitoring Center, Shenyang 110016, China)

Abstract: Some studies have shown that the positive radiative forcing (0.1 W/m2) caused by black carbon (BC) could not only be an important impact factor on global warming, but also affect multiple parameters of the climate system, such as atmosphere circulation, precipitation, etc. Recently, the research of BC has extended to the fields of carbon cycle, and the interactions of BC aerosols with the abnormity of atmosphere circulation, and of the surface of BC particles with active gas species, etc. New progresses in the above research fields are reviewed in this paper.

Key words: black carbon aerosol; climate effect; carbon cycle; atmosphere circulation; heterogeneous reaction

收稿日期：2007-01-06； 修订日期：2007-05-29

基金项目：中国气象局气候变化专项“黑碳气溶胶的气候效应及其政策意义”（CCSF2005-3-DH10）；中国科技部和美国能源部合作项目（DE-FG02- 04ER63913）资助

作者简介：许黎（1950-），女，副研究员，主要从事大气组分的测量和分析研究.  E-mail:xuli@cma.gov.cn

文章编号：1673-1719 (2007) 06-0334-06

钱维宏，丁  婷，符娇兰，林  祥，朱亚芬

摘 要：温度和降水是反映气候变化的两个主要变量。因此，针对这两个变量序列的时空分辨率和已揭示的气候变率，以及需要进一步研究的方向作了初步的归纳与讨论。用近一个世纪的温度、降水资料揭示，中国东部地区存在着准20 a和准70 a的振荡以及中国降水气候型的漂移；用近五百年和近千年的代用序列并结合器测资料，揭示了我国东部地区存在着70～80 a的振荡。文章最后指出，我国气候变化研究在资料开发、规律与机理研究、预测与服务等方面有待进一步提高。

关键词：中国；气候变化；资料；变率

中图分类号：P467   文献标识码：A

Qian Weihong, Ding Ting, Fu Jiaolan, Lin Xiang, Zhu Yafen

 ( School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China)

Abstract: Temperature and precipitation are the two main variables in climate change. Spatial-temporal resolutions of temperature and precipitation, and climate variability are summarized and discussed in this paper. Recent 100-year datasets are used to reveal quasi-20-year and quasi-70-year oscillations in eastern China, as well as precipitation pattern shift in China. Besides,70- to 80-year oscillations exist in eastern China, based on 500 years and 1000 years proxy and observation records. Finally, researches for future on climate change in China should be improved on data development, regularity and mechanism, prediction and service.

Key words: China; climate change; data; variability

收稿日期：2007-03-08； 修订日期：2007-03-30

基金项目：国家自然科学基金项目（90502001，90711003）资助

作者简介：钱维宏（1957-），男，教授，主要从事季风和海气相互作用方面的研究.  E-mail: qianwh@pku.edu.cn

文章编号：1673-1719 (2007) 06-0340-05

张增信^1,2,4,5，Klaus Fraedrich³，姜  彤^4,1，张金池²

（1 中国科学院 南京地理与湖泊研究所，南京  210008； 2 南京林业大学 江苏省林业生态工程重点实验室，南京 210037；3 Meteorological Institute, University of Hamburg， Hamburg D-20146, Germany； 4 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室, 北京 100081； 5 中国科学院研究生院，北京 100039）

摘 要：20世纪90年代长江流域日最大降水增加主要出现在长江以南地区和金沙江流域，ECHAM5/MPI-OM模型也大致模拟出了这种趋势。在IPCC给出的3种不同的排放情景下，2000—2050年长江上游日最大降水均有上升趋势，2020年前A2情景下日最大降水最大，A1B最小；长江中下游日最大降水在2025年之前均有明显上升趋势，之后略有下降，波动较大。长江流域未来日最大降水增多的区域可能主要出现在长江以南地区，而极端降水减少的区域可能出现在长江以北地区。

关键词：长江流域；极端降水；日最大降水；预估

中图分类号：P426.6   文献标识码：A

Zhang Zengxin^{1, 2, 4, 5}, Klaus Fraedrich ³, Jiang Tong ^{4, 1}, Zhang Jinchi²

 (1 Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008,China; 2 Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Forestry Ecological Engineering of Jiangsu Province , Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China; 3 Meteorological Institute, University of Hamburg, Hamburg D-20146, Germany; 4  Laboratory for Climate Studies, China  Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 5 Graduate University of  the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China)

Abstract: Daily maximum rainfall (as an index for extreme precipitation) was higher in the Jialing River basin, Taihu Lake area, the mid-lower main stream section in the 1990s, and there was a good relationship between ECHAM5/MPI-OM simulations and observed data about extreme precipitation. Under the A2, A1B, and B1 greenhouse gases emission scenarios of SRES, the extreme precipitation projected in 2000-2050 was compared, the daily maximum rainfall will be dominated by increasing trends in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin, with the largest magnitude of increasing tendency under the A2 scenario and the least magnitude under the A1B scenario before 2020. As for the middle and lower reaches, the daily maximum rainfall will increase prominently before 2025, and then decline slightly. There might be more floods in the south of the Yangtze River and more droughts in the north in the future.

Key words: Yangtze River basin; extreme precipitation; daily maximum rainfall; projection

收稿日期：2007-02-09； 修订日期：2007-07-31

基金项目：中国气象局气候变化专项（CCSF2006-31，CCSF2007-35）；“十一五”国家林业科技支撑项目（2006BAD03A1601）资助

作者简介：张增信（1977-），男，博士生，主要从事气候变化对水文和生态影响研究. E-mail: zxzhang@njfu.com.cn

文章编号：1673-1719 (2007) 06-0345-05

王小玲，任福民

（中国气象局 国家气候中心，中国气象局气候研究开放实验室，北京 100081）

摘 要：以中国气象局西北太平洋热带气旋资料为基础，分析1957—2004年影响我国并达到台风强度以上的三类热带气旋，即生成热带气旋、影响热带气旋和登陆热带气旋的频数和强度的变化。结果表明：强热带气旋频数在1957—2004年间呈显著减少趋势，强度越强，其减少趋势越明显。近50 a台风以上强度的强热带气旋频次占总频次的比例没有明显的增加或减少趋势，强台风和超强台风比例呈减少趋势。1957—2004年热带气旋的最大强度呈线性减弱趋势，生成热带气旋和影响热带气旋的平均强度亦呈减弱趋势，登陆台风的平均强度也呈减弱趋势。

关键词：强热带气旋；影响热带气旋；登陆热带气旋； 中国

中图分类号：P444   文献标识码：A

Wang Xiaoling,  Ren Fumin

(Laboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration; National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China)

Abstract: Based on the tropical cyclone track dataset in the Northwestern Pacific from China Meteorological Administration, variations in frequencies and intensities of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific, affecting-China tropical cyclones (ACTCs) and landfall ones (LTCs) reaching typhoon intensity during 1957-2004 were studied. Frequencies of strong tropical cyclones showed significant decreasing trends from 1957 to 2004 and the linear trend was much larger when the intensity was strong. There were no increasing or decreasing trends in the ratios of strong tropical cyclones reaching typhoon intensity, while those reaching strong typhoon and super typhoon showed decreasing trends during 1957-2004. The maximum intensities of TCs, ACTCs and LTCs had all decreased during the period of 1957-2004. The mean intensities of TCs and ACTCs illustrated decreasing trends and the mean intensity of LTCs achieving typhoon intensity also showed decreasing trends.

Key words: strong tropical cyclone; affecting China tropical cyclone; landfall tropical cyclone; China

收稿日期：2007-04-28； 修订日期：2007-09-06

基金项目：国家自然科学基金项目“全球变暖背景下西北太平洋热带气旋活动的变化”（40775046）；国家重点基础研究发展计划（973计划）项目子专题“影响中国台风活动及其与海气相互作用的关系研究”（2006CB403601）资助

作者简介：王小玲（1976-），女, 工程师, 主要从事气候变化研究.  E-mail: xlwang@cma.gov.cn

文章编号：1673-1719 (2007) 06-0350-06

王明洁，张小丽，朱小雅，陈元昭

（广东省深圳市气象局，深圳 518040）

摘 要：以1953—2005年深圳市逐日最高、最低、平均温度资料为基础，分析近50 a来深圳市的气温变化特征，通过气候变暖前后灾害事件的次数和强度的对比，分析了灾害性天气气候事件的变化规律。研究表明，在全球气候增暖和城市化快速发展的过程中，深圳市的灾害性天气气候事件发生了明显的变化：变暖前后，暴雨次数无明显变化，但20世纪90年代极端降水事件加剧；雷暴日数减少；霾现象日趋严重；高温日数明显增加，持续高温加剧；低温、低温阴雨天气明显减少；影响深圳的热带气旋数量减少，但降水强度在加大。

关键词：气候变暖；频率；变化趋势；灾害性天气

中图分类号：P429   文献标识码：A

Wang Mingjie, Zhang Xiaoli, Zhu Xiaoya, Chen Yuanzhao

 (Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau, Shenzhen  518040, China)

Abstract: Based on Shenzhen’s temperature observations from 1953 to 2005, the temperature time series were represented with average, maximum and minimum temperatures. By using the statistical method, linear analysis and Mann-Kendall method, the change in temperature for Shenzhen was studied, and by contrasting the frequency and intensity during different periods before and after 1987, the change characteristics of disastrous weather and climate events were discussed. The results show that under the climate warming and the rapid development of Shenzhen, except the frequency of heavy rain events the extreme precipitation has become more serious after the 1990s. The annual number of thunderstorm days has decreased, and the haze phenomenon aggravated increasingly. The high temperature days and continuous high temperature events have obviously  increased, while the low temperature and the low temperature with rainy events decreased. The frequency of the tropical cyclone influencing Shenzhen has decreased, but its impact on heavy rainfall become more serious.

Key words: climate warming; frequency; change trend; disastrous weather and climate events

收稿日期：2007-04-09； 修订日期：2007-09-20

作者简介：王明洁（1972-），女，高级工程师，主要从事天气气候预报研究.  E-mail: wmingjie1128@yahoo.com.cn

文章编号：1673-1719 (2007) 06-0356-06

史津梅^1,2，唐红玉³，许维俊⁴，王志伟⁵

（1 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所，兰州 730001；2 青海省气象台，西宁 810001；

3 青海省气候中心，西宁 810001；4 青海省气象局，西宁 810001；

5 山西省卫星遥感减灾服务中心，太原 030002）

摘 要：利用青海省1959—2003年气象资料，计算了修正的Palmer干旱指数，并对其进行了分析。结果表明：在青海省旱涝监测中，PDSI指数反映旱涝程度更为客观；青海省的干旱主要以轻旱为主；夏秋季年际干湿交替较冬春季频繁，变化振幅也较大；秋季青海省干旱化倾向最为严重，冬春季出现轻旱几率最大。另外，春季干旱总面积在减小；夏季轻旱面积增加，而中旱、重旱面积在减小；秋冬季重旱面积在增加。

关键词：青海省；PDSI指数；干旱；湿润

中图分类号：P467   文献标识码：A

Shi Jinmei^{1, 2}, Tang Hongyu³, Xu Weijun⁴, Wang Zhiwei⁵

 (1 Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou 730001, China; 2 Qinghai Meteorological Observatory, Xining 810001, China; 3 Qinghai Climate Center, Xining 810001, China; 4 Qinghai Meteorological Bureau, Xining 810001, China;

5 Shanxi Satellite Remote-Sensing Center for Reducing Disasters, Taiyuan 030002, China)

Abstract:  Based on analyses of the meteorological data at 29 meteorological stations in Qinghai Province from 1959 to 2003, the corrected Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) was calculated and analyzed. The results show that the PDSI is more objective in comparison with Z index in dryness/wetness monitoring. Most of droughts were light in Qinghai, the interannual alternations of dryness/wetness in summer and autumn were more frequent with larger change ranges in comparison with winter and spring. The drought trend in autumn was the severest, and the probability of light drought was the largest in winter and spring. Moreover, the total drought area in Qinghai Province decreased in spring, the light drought area increased in summer, but the medium and heavy drought area decreased, and the severe drought area increased in winter and autumn during 1959-2003.

Key words: Qinghai Province; PDSI; dryness; wetness

收稿日期：2007-04-11； 修订日期：2007-09-19

基金项目：兰州干旱气象科学研究基金项目（IAM200507）；中国气象局气象新技术推广项目（CMATG2005M22）资助

作者简介：史津梅（1968-），女，工程师，主要从事天气气候研究.  E-mail: sjm_qxt@163.com

文章编号：1673-1719 (2007) 06-0362-06

黄雪松1，况雪源1，覃峥嵘2，黄梅丽1，林开平3

（1 广西壮族自治区气候中心，南宁 530022；

2广西气象学会，南宁 530022；3 南宁市气象局，南宁 530022）

摘 要：对广西近百年平均气温及降水量变化进行了多时间尺度的层次结构研究，并与Nino3区的海温距平进行奇异交叉谱分析。结果表明：平均气温有较强上升趋势并伴有明显的准两年周期振荡；降水则呈下降趋势，主要周期为32 a左右及准两年振荡。1884至1910年代初，广西处于干冷期；1910年代初至1930年前后，处于湿冷期；1930年前后至1950年代后期，处于湿暖期；1950年代后期至1990年代前期，处于干暖期。ENSO事件3~7 a的周期对广西平均气温及降水影响显著，赤道太平洋海温变化对广西气温的影响主要表现在年代际变化上，对降水的影响主要体现在年际变化上。

关键词：广西；近百年气候变化；小波分析；奇异交叉谱分析

中图分类号：P423/P426   文献标识码：A

Huang Xuesong1, Kuang Xueyuan1, Qin Zhengrong2, Huang Meili1, Lin Kaiping3

(1 Guangxi Climate Center, Nanning 530022, China; 2 Guangxi Meteorological Society, Nanning 530022, China; 3 Nanning Meteorological Bureau, Nanning 530022, China)

Abstract: Wavelet analysis was used in this paper to study the multi-time-scale structure of the temperature and precipitation series in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region in the recent century, and the coupled characteristics between the sea surface temperature of Nino3 region and the two series mentioned above were diagnosed by using singular cross-spectrum analysis (SCSA). The results indicate that the ascending trend accompanied with the quasi-biennial oscillations dominated in the temperature variation while the precipitation showed a descending trend with the 32-year and quasi-biennial oscillations. Guangxi climate was characteristic of dry-cold from 1884 to the early 1910s, wet-cold from the early 1910s to around 1930, wet-warm from around 1930 to the late 1950s, and dry-warm from the late 1950s to the early 1990s. The 3-7-year oscillation component of ENSO exerted marked influence on Guangxi climate. The coupled variations of SST in the Nino3 region and Guangxi climate were reflected on the decadal scale for temperature and interannual scale for precipitation.

Key words: Guangxi; climate change in recent century; wavelet analysis; singular cross-spectrum analysis

收稿日期：2007-01-30； 修订日期：2007-04-24

基金项目：广西科技攻关项目（桂科攻0592005-2B）；广西气象局重点研究项目（桂气科200401）资助

作者简介：黄雪松（1966-），女，高级工程师，主要从事气候分析与研究工作.  E-mail: xshuang9912@163.com

文章编号：1673-1719 (2007) 06-0368-05

廖要明¹，张  强¹，陈德亮^1,2

（1 中国气象局  国家气候中心, 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室, 北京 100081；

2 Earth Sciences Center, Gothenburg University, Gothenburg 40530, Sweden）

摘 要：以重庆市的沙坪坝、涪陵、万州、奉节和湖北省的宜昌5个站为代表，从降水、气温、日照、风速和蒸发等5个要素系统地分析了三峡库区1951—2006年夏季的气候变化特征。结果表明：三峡库区夏季降水量总体呈增加趋势，特别是在20世纪70年代末发生了一次明显跃变；最高气温、平均气温、日照时数以及蒸发量等总体呈下降趋势，在20世纪80年代初发生了一次明显跃变；平均最低气温和平均风速的变化趋势不明显，但所有气候要素均表现出明显的年代际变化特征。

关键词：三峡库区；降水；气温；日照；风速；蒸发量；气候变化

中图分类号：P461+.5   文献标识码：A

Liao Yaoming¹, Zhang Qiang¹, Chen Deliang^{1, 2}

 (1 Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 2 Earth Sciences Center, Gothenburg University, Gothenburg 40530, Sweden)

Abstract: Based on historical records of precipitation, temperature, sunshine duration and wind speed at 5 stations including Chongqing, Fuling, Wanzhou, Fengjie and Yichang, the changes in these climate elements in summer over the Three Gorges area during 1951-2006 were analyzed. Results show that the regional average of summer precipitation had an overall increasing trend and a jump change occurred in the end of the 1970s. Meanwhile, maximum temperature, mean temperature, sunshine duration and water surface evaporation had a declining trend and a jump change happened in the early 1980s. At the same time, minimum temperature and wind speed did not have an obvious trend. All of these variables showed obvious decadal variations.

Key words: Three Gorges area; precipitation; temperature; sunshine duration; wind speed; evaporation; climate change

收稿日期：2006-12-06； 修订日期：2007-07-18

基金项目：国务院三峡工程建设委员会办公室生态环境补偿经费项目（SX2006-008）资助

作者简介：廖要明（1972-），男，工程师，主要从事气候影响评价科研、业务工作.  E-mail: lymzxr@cma.gov.cn

 

文章编号：1673-1719 (2007) 06-0373-06

王艳秋¹，高煜中²，潘华盛² ，张桂华²，万里鹏³，郑  红²

（1 哈尔滨市气象台，哈尔滨 150080； 2 黑龙江省气象中心，哈尔滨 150030；

3 大兴安岭地区气象局，加格达奇 165000）

摘 要：利用黑龙江省和哈尔滨市的气温资料，通过5种气候模式，对黑龙江省及哈尔滨市的气温变化特点，以及未来50 a的变化趋势作了分析。结果表明：20世纪80年代以来，黑龙江省气候明显变暖，在1881—2001年120 a间哈尔滨年平均气温上升了1.4℃，全省1981—2000年较1951—1980年间平均气温上升近1.0℃。数值模拟结果显示，2030年和2050年的气温将分别升高1.9℃和2.4℃，到2050年≥10℃积温带将北移约5个纬距。气候变暖对水稻、玉米、大豆和小麦生长发育的影响很大，除大豆增产外，其他作物产量均有所降低。因此，必须进行作物结构调整才能逐步适应气候变化，获得增产。

关键词：气候变暖；作物产量；影响；种植结构调整

中图分类号：S162.5   文献标识码：A

Wang Yanqiu¹, Gao Yuzhong², Pan Huasheng², Zhang Guihua², Wan Lipeng³, Zheng Hong²

 (1 Harbin Meteorological Observatory, Harbin 150080, China; 2 Meteorological Center of Heilongjiang Province, Harbin 150030, China; 3 Meteorological Bureau of

Da Hingganling, Jagdaqi 165000, China

Abstract: Based on the air temperature data of Heilongjiang Province and Harbin City, the centurial variation characteristics of air temperature in Harbin were analyzed and the trend of future 50 years was projected by using the simulations of five climate models. Results show that the annual temperature in Harbin has increased by 1.4 ℃ in the 120 years of 1881-2001, and Heilongjiang climate has become warm remarkably since the 1980s, and the mean temperature of 1981-2000 over the whole Heilongjiang Province risen by 1.0 ℃ relative to that of 1951-1980. Projected results show that the temperature would rise up by 1.94℃ in 2030 and by 2.42 ℃ in 2050 in comparison with the mean temperature of 1961-1990. The accumulated temperature zone was projected to move northward by 2.5° and 5.0° latitudes in 2030 and 2050, respectively, relative to the mean position of 1951-1980. Effects of climate warming on major crops (paddy, corn, soybean and wheat) will be prominent, and except soybean other crop誷 yields will decline due to shorter growth period and earlier maturation. So the crop structure adjustment is necessary to address climate change.

Key words: climate warming; crop yield; impact; agricultural structure adjustment

收稿日期：2006-12-18； 修订日期：2007-09-21

基金项目：黑龙江省科技攻关项目（GC06C10302）资助

作者简介：王艳秋（1968-），女，高级工程师，主要从事天气气候学研究.  E-mail: wangyq_68@yahoo.com.cn

文章编号：1673-1719 (2007) 06-0379-04

王毅荣^1,2，罗  勇³，张书余¹

（1 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所 甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室

中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室，兰州 730020；

2 兰州区域气候中心，兰州 730020； 3 中国气象局 国家气候中心，北京 100081）

摘 要：利用河西走廊地区风速气候资料和风塔精细资料，通过分析该区域风速演变，探讨风能资源的可持续性。研究表明，河西走廊地区的环境风速比较稳定，在气候上没有明显的减小趋势，根据对未来风速变化的预测及河西走廊独特的地理、人文环境，初步推断河西地区风能资源具有很好的持续性。

关键词：河西走廊；风能；可持续性

中图分类号：TK81   文献标识码：A

Wang Yirong^{1, 2,} Luo Yong³, Zhang Shuyu¹

 (1 Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Reducing Disaster of China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou 730020, China; 2 Lanzhou Regional Climate Center, Lanzhou 730020, China; 3 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijijng 100081, China)

Abstract: The sustainability of wind energy over Hexi corridor was explored by using the wind intensive observation data of stations and wind-towers during 1970-2004. Results show that the wind speed was generally stable in the period. It is projected based on the prediction of future wind speed and the unique geographic and humanistic environments that the wind speed will be still relatively stable before 2025, and the wind energy resource in the corridor has a good sustainability.

Key words: Hexi Corridor; wind energy; sustainability

收稿日期：2007-03-09； 修订日期：2007-08-21

基金项目：北京城市气象科学研究基金项目（UMRF200505）资助

作者简介：王毅荣（1967-），男，高级工程师，主要从事气候变化与预测研究.  E-mail: werice@163.com