中国气候变化信息网 China Climate Change Info-Net

A recent report of International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says over a billion people in 100 countries face a bleak future but Pakistan is not on, what IPCC calls, a critical list.

Taken together, these countries form one group of 100 nations, collectively housing well over a billion people. However, according to the report, their CO2 emissions (excluding South Africa's) account for only 3.2 percent of the global total, compared to US 23.3 per cent, EU 24.7 per cent, China 15.3 per cent and India 4.5 per cent.

This group of 'Most Vulnerable Countries' (MVCs) emits a tiny proportion of the total amount of greenhouse gases from human sources and a negligible amount relative to the emissions from the major emitting countries.

So while these countries and their people (particularly the poorest communities within them) will suffer severely over the next decade or two from the impacts of climate change, they bear minimal responsibility for creating the problem, says report.

In these, the nations most vulnerable to climate change, entrenched poverty, degraded or threatened environments and other problems have already eroded resilience.

"The harsher, more frequent natural disasters that are predicted could tip them over the edge into chronic famine or forced migration. Yet these are also the countries that have contributed least to climate change," says IPCC.

IPCC has stressed that it is vital that their voices and views be heard in the negotiations to determine the post-Kyoto climate regime. "Equally importantly, the countries emitting the most greenhouse gases must redress the balance by establishing robust mitigation programmes," it says.

If during that time the countries and regions emitting the most primarily the US, EU, China and India, fail to introduce strong mitigation measures, the impacts on the MVCs over the longer term could be catastrophic, it has warned.

Some may be completely inundated and disappear altogether. In other cases, the lack of capacity to cope with the impacts of climate change may result in the forced migration of tens of millions of people, for example from the low-lying and densely populated delta and coastal regions of Asia and Africa.

The report says these countries will need substantial funding for adaptation.